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Kisvarda FC vs Gyori ETO FC Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:30

Kisvarda FC

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Gyori ETO FC

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 50.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-19.7%0-28.3%0-34.7%0-4+3.0%1 1-06.6%1-111.2%1-29.6%1-35.5%1-4+3.4%2 2-03.8%2-16.5%2-25.6%2-33.2%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.5%3-12.5%3-22.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.4% 30.3% 3.30 -11.7%

Draw 23.6% 28.6% 3.50 -10.4%

Away win 52.0% 50.5% 1.98 +3.0%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.5% 38.5% 2.60 -5.1%

BTTS 55.0% 65.4% 1.53 -15.8%

Home O1.5 31.5% 40.8% 2.45 -22.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 55.6% 1.80 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -20.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.0%

A 52% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 8.3%

#4 0–1 9.7%

#5 2–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kisvarda FC1.2

Gyori ETO FC1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KISVARDA FC · PPG 1.18

GYORI ETO FC · PPG 1.62

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.55 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Kisvarda FC (H) 24.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.7%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.4%

Gyori ETO FC (A) 52.0%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV +3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kisvarda FC face Gyori ETO FC in Hungary - NB I on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kisvarda FC a 24% chance, the draw 24% and Gyori ETO FC 52%, so Gyori ETO FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Kisvarda FC and 1.7 for Gyori ETO FC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kisvarda FC are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.62 for Gyori ETO FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Kisvarda FC vs Gyori ETO FC Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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