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Nyiregyhaza vs Paks Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:45

Nyiregyhaza

PPG 1.81 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Paks

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-15.0%0-24.4%0-32.6%0-4+1.8%1 1-05.0%1-18.9%1-28.0%1-34.7%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.5%2-18.0%2-27.2%2-34.3%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.7%3-14.8%3-24.3%3-32.5%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.2%4+-22.9%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 45.0% 2.22 -13.4%

Draw 23.1% 26.7% 3.75 -8.0%

Away win 37.9% 37.3% 2.68 +1.6%

Over 2.5 64.7% 69.0% 1.45 -6.2%

Over 3.5 43.2% 46.5% 2.15 -7.1%

BTTS 63.1% 71.4% 1.40 -11.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 56.5% 1.77 -13.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 51.3% 1.95 -6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -20.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.1%

H 39% / xG 1.8-1.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.9%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nyiregyhaza1.8

Paks1.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NYIREGYHAZA · PPG 1.81

PAKS · PPG 1.06

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nyiregyhaza (H) 39.0%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -13.4%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -8.0%

Paks (A) 37.9%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV +1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nyiregyhaza face Paks in Hungary - NB I on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nyiregyhaza a 39% chance, the draw 23% and Paks 38%, so Nyiregyhaza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Nyiregyhaza and 1.8 for Paks (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nyiregyhaza are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.06 for Paks. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Nyiregyhaza vs Paks Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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