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MTK Budapest vs Nyiregyhaza Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:30

MTK Budapest

PPG 1.49 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Nyiregyhaza

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.9%0-22.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.7%1-18.7%1-25.6%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.4%2-19.5%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.4%3-17.0%3-24.5%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-16.4%4+-24.1%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 43.5% 2.30 +22.1%

Draw 22.5% 29.4% 3.40 -14.1%

Away win 24.4% 36.2% 2.76 -19.6%

Over 2.5 64.9% 59.9% 1.67 +8.4%

Over 3.5 43.5% 37.7% 2.65 +15.3%

BTTS 63.1% 65.4% 1.53 -3.5%

Home O1.5 65.1% 50.0% 2.00 +30.2%

Away O1.5 37.3% 44.4% 2.25 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -20.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.1%

H 53% / xG 2.2-1.3 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1✓ 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 1–2 5.6%

#5 3–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MTK Budapest2.2

Nyiregyhaza1.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MTK BUDAPEST · PPG 1.49

NYIREGYHAZA · PPG 0.93

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

MTK Budapest (H) 53.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +22.1%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.1%

Nyiregyhaza (A) 24.4%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

MTK Budapest face Nyiregyhaza in Hungary - NB I on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MTK Budapest a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Nyiregyhaza 24%, so MTK Budapest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for MTK Budapest and 1.3 for Nyiregyhaza (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MTK Budapest are averaging 1.49 points per game versus 0.93 for Nyiregyhaza. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +36.0%. This match finished 2-1.

MTK Budapest vs Nyiregyhaza Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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