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Nyiregyhaza vs Kisvarda FC Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 15:30

Nyiregyhaza

PPG 1.61 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kisvarda FC

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-19.9%0-26.4%0-32.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.8%1-112.6%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.2%2-18.0%2-25.2%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.6%3-13.4%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 51.5% 1.94 -29.0%

Draw 28.5% 29.9% 3.35 -2.7%

Away win 34.9% 27.8% 3.60 +25.6%

Over 2.5 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 53.1% 59.9% 1.67 -11.3%

Home O1.5 37.9% 51.3% 1.95 -26.1%

Away O1.5 37.4% 34.5% 2.90 +8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.1%

D 28% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.7%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 2–1 8.0%

#5 0–1 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nyiregyhaza1.3

Kisvarda FC1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NYIREGYHAZA · PPG 1.61

KISVARDA FC · PPG 1.45

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nyiregyhaza (H) 36.6%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -29.0%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -2.7%

Kisvarda FC (A) 34.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +25.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nyiregyhaza face Kisvarda FC in Hungary - NB I on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nyiregyhaza a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Kisvarda FC 35%, so Nyiregyhaza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Nyiregyhaza and 1.3 for Kisvarda FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nyiregyhaza are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.45 for Kisvarda FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +14.2%.

Nyiregyhaza vs Kisvarda FC Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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