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Zalaegerszegi TE vs Ferencvarosi TC Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 15:30

Zalaegerszegi TE

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ferencvarosi TC

PPG 1.68 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.8%0-25.1%0-33.0%0-4+2.0%1 1-05.4%1-19.5%1-28.5%1-35.0%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.4%2-17.9%2-27.0%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.4%3-14.3%3-23.8%3-32.3%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.6%4+-22.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 20.0% 5.00 +112.5%

Draw 23.0% 25.6% 3.90 -6.2%

Away win 34.5% 63.3% 1.58 -45.5%

Over 2.5 63.1% 61.7% 1.62 +2.2%

Over 3.5 38.8% 39.2% 2.55 -1.1%

BTTS 61.6% 61.7% 1.62 -0.2%

Home O1.5 47.2% 31.3% 3.20 +51.0%

Away O1.5 47.7% 63.7% 1.57 -25.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.6%

A 34% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 0–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zalaegerszegi TE1.6

Ferencvarosi TC1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ZALAEGERSZEGI TE · PPG 1.83

FERENCVAROSI TC · PPG 1.68

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Zalaegerszegi TE (H) 42.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +112.5%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -6.2%

Ferencvarosi TC (A) 34.5%

ODDS 1.58 · IMPLIED 63.3% EV -45.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zalaegerszegi TE face Ferencvarosi TC in Hungary - NB I on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zalaegerszegi TE a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Ferencvarosi TC 35%, so Zalaegerszegi TE are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Zalaegerszegi TE and 1.8 for Ferencvarosi TC (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zalaegerszegi TE are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.68 for Ferencvarosi TC. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +61.0%.

Zalaegerszegi TE vs Ferencvarosi TC Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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