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Kisvarda FC vs Debreceni VSC Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 15:30

Kisvarda FC

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Debreceni VSC

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.7%0-25.4%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.3%1-111.6%1-28.1%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-18.7%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.1%3-14.3%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.8% 32.3% 3.10 +29.6%

Draw 24.0% 30.8% 3.25 -13.2%

Away win 34.2% 46.5% 2.15 -26.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 57.8% 1.73 +3.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 36.4% 2.75 +0.7%

BTTS 61.3% 61.7% 1.62 -0.7%

Home O1.5 40.0% 38.2% 2.62 +4.8%

Away O1.5 41.2% 52.4% 1.91 -21.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -20.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 1–0 8.3%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kisvarda FC1.5

Debreceni VSC1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KISVARDA FC · PPG 1.20

DEBRECENI VSC · PPG 1.33

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kisvarda FC (H) 41.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +29.6%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.2%

Debreceni VSC (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -26.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kisvarda FC face Debreceni VSC in Hungary - NB I on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kisvarda FC a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Debreceni VSC 34%, so Kisvarda FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Kisvarda FC and 1.4 for Debreceni VSC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kisvarda FC are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.33 for Debreceni VSC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Kisvarda FC vs Debreceni VSC Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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