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Debreceni VSC vs Gyori ETO FC Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:30

Debreceni VSC

PPG 1.53 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gyori ETO FC

PPG 1.72 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-19.9%0-28.7%0-35.1%0-4+3.3%1 1-06.3%1-111.1%1-29.7%1-35.7%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.5%2-16.2%2-25.4%2-33.2%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.3%3-12.3%3-22.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.5% 33.8% 2.96 -11.2%

Draw 26.7% 27.4% 3.65 -1.5%

Away win 45.8% 48.1% 2.08 -4.7%

Over 2.5 53.1% 62.5% 1.60 -15.0%

Over 3.5 31.8% 40.0% 2.50 -20.5%

BTTS 53.1% 66.7% 1.50 -20.3%

Home O1.5 30.2% 43.5% 2.30 -30.5%

Away O1.5 47.7% 54.1% 1.85 -11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob53.1%

A 46% / xG 1.1-1.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.7%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Debreceni VSC1.1

Gyori ETO FC1.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEBRECENI VSC · PPG 1.53

GYORI ETO FC · PPG 1.72

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.63 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Debreceni VSC (H) 27.5%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -11.2%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -1.5%

Gyori ETO FC (A) 45.8%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Debreceni VSC face Gyori ETO FC in Hungary - NB I on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Debreceni VSC a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Gyori ETO FC 46%, so Gyori ETO FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Debreceni VSC and 1.8 for Gyori ETO FC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Debreceni VSC are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.72 for Gyori ETO FC.

Debreceni VSC vs Gyori ETO FC Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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