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Puskas Academy vs Paks Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 15:30

Puskas Academy

PPG 1.08 · HOME

UPCOMING

Paks

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-15.4%0-24.3%0-32.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.1%1-19.7%1-27.7%1-34.1%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-26.9%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.2%3-15.1%3-24.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.4%4+-22.7%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 46.5% 2.15 +2.5%

Draw 23.0% 27.4% 3.65 -9.6%

Away win 29.3% 35.0% 2.86 -9.7%

Over 2.5 63.1% 66.7% 1.50 -5.3%

Over 3.5 38.8% 45.5% 2.20 -14.6%

BTTS 61.6% 71.4% 1.40 -13.8%

Home O1.5 49.2% 56.5% 1.77 -12.9%

Away O1.5 47.4% 48.8% 2.05 -2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.6%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puskas Academy1.8

Paks1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PUSKAS ACADEMY · PPG 1.08

PAKS · PPG 1.23

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Puskas Academy (H) 47.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +2.5%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.6%

Paks (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puskas Academy face Paks in Hungary - NB I on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puskas Academy a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Paks 29%, so Puskas Academy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Puskas Academy and 1.6 for Paks (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puskas Academy are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.23 for Paks.

Puskas Academy vs Paks Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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