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Ujpest vs MTK Budapest Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:30

Ujpest

PPG 1.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

MTK Budapest

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.4%0-22.3%0-31.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-03.1%1-15.9%1-25.6%1-33.6%1-4+2.7%2 2-03.8%2-17.3%2-27.0%2-34.4%2-4+3.3%3 3-03.1%3-16.0%3-25.7%3-33.7%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-16.7%4+-26.4%4+-34.1%4+-4+3.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 50.8% 1.97 -4.1%

Draw 22.3% 27.8% 3.60 -11.8%

Away win 29.0% 30.3% 3.30 -2.6%

Over 2.5 67.4% 66.7% 1.50 +1.1%

Over 3.5 47.2% 44.4% 2.25 +6.2%

BTTS 63.3% 70.4% 1.42 -10.1%

Home O1.5 63.3% 58.8% 1.70 +7.6%

Away O1.5 53.8% 44.4% 2.25 +21.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.3%

H 49% / xG 2.5-1.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.3%

#2 2–2 7.0%

#3 1–1 5.9%

#4 3–1 6.0%

#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ujpest2.5

MTK Budapest1.9

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UJPEST · PPG 1.64

MTK BUDAPEST · PPG 1.04

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ujpest (H) 48.7%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -4.1%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.8%

MTK Budapest (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ujpest face MTK Budapest in Hungary - NB I on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ujpest a 49% chance, the draw 22% and MTK Budapest 29%, so Ujpest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Ujpest and 1.9 for MTK Budapest (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ujpest are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.04 for MTK Budapest. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +21.1%.

Ujpest vs MTK Budapest Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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