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Kisvarda FC vs Ujpest Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:30

Kisvarda FC

PPG 1.36 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Ujpest

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-17.2%0-24.4%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.4%1-111.6%1-27.1%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.3%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.0%3-15.0%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 40.3% 2.48 +13.8%

Draw 27.3% 30.8% 3.25 -6.8%

Away win 26.8% 38.2% 2.62 -17.9%

Over 2.5 51.2% 56.5% 1.77 -9.4%

Over 3.5 32.3% 34.5% 2.90 -6.3%

BTTS 53.1% 63.7% 1.57 -16.6%

Home O1.5 47.5% 45.5% 2.20 +4.5%

Away O1.5 35.7% 43.5% 2.30 -17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.1%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.4%

#4 0–0 5.8%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kisvarda FC1.6

Ujpest1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KISVARDA FC · PPG 1.36

UJPEST · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kisvarda FC (H) 45.9%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +13.8%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.8%

Ujpest (A) 26.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kisvarda FC face Ujpest in Hungary - NB I on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kisvarda FC a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Ujpest 27%, so Kisvarda FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Kisvarda FC and 1.2 for Ujpest (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kisvarda FC are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.94 for Ujpest. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.3%. This match finished 2-4.

Kisvarda FC vs Ujpest Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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