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Vasas vs Nyiregyhaza Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:30

Vasas

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

UPCOMING

Nyiregyhaza

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.1%0-22.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.3%1-110.1%1-25.5%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.0%3-16.5%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-15.0%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 46.7% 2.14 +10.8%

Draw 23.4% 29.0% 3.45 -11.6%

Away win 24.8% 33.3% 3.00 -15.4%

Over 2.5 59.6% 57.8% 1.73 +3.1%

Over 3.5 36.4% 36.4% 2.75 +0.1%

BTTS 56.2% 64.5% 1.55 -12.9%

Home O1.5 55.8% 51.3% 1.95 +8.8%

Away O1.5 33.0% 40.8% 2.45 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -20.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.2%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 1–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasas2.0

Nyiregyhaza1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VASAS · PPG 1.44

NYIREGYHAZA · PPG 0.81

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vasas (H) 51.8%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV +10.8%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -11.6%

Nyiregyhaza (A) 24.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasas face Nyiregyhaza in Hungary - NB I on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasas a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Nyiregyhaza 25%, so Vasas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Vasas and 1.1 for Nyiregyhaza (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasas are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.81 for Nyiregyhaza. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +27.1%.

Vasas vs Nyiregyhaza Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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