Ligue 1
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions
DateMatchPickProbOddsEV
3 SEPT18:45 Toulouse vs Lille BTTS 55% 1.80 -1%4 SEPT17:00 Lyon vs Auxerre Over 2.5 60% 1.65 -2%4 SEPT19:05 Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco BTTS 55% 1.60 -12%// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 56 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
39.3%
1X2
22/56
60.7%
O/U 2.5
34/56
53.6%
BTTS
30/56
30.4%
Exact score
17/56
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
13
Settled
53.8%
Hit rate
7/13
1.63
Avg odds
-13.2%
ROI
-1.7u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=6 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.70 · +11.2% ROI
HOME WIN · N=5 40.0% HIT · AVG 1.47 · -43.6% ROI
BTTS · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.85 · -10.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
1
Bets
100%
Hit
+65.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
5
Bets
40%
Hit
-33.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
4
Bets
50%
Hit
-14.5%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
3
Bets
67%
Hit
-4.3%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 13 PICKS · 7 HIT · 6 MISS
30 AUG Paris FC vs Nice — NO PICK 3–0 —30 AUG Monaco vs Marseille BTTS -21% 2–0 MISS29 AUG Strasbourg vs Lens Over 2.5 -13% 2–1 HIT29 AUG Lyon vs Le Havre Home -28% 1–1 MISS29 AUG Auxerre vs Angers BTTS -4% 1–3 HIT29 AUG Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse Over 2.5 -1% 2–2 HIT28 AUG Lille vs Paris Saint Germain BTTS -12% 2–2 HIT23 AUG Angers vs Lille BTTS +1% 0–2 MISS23 AUG Le Havre vs Monaco BTTS -15% 0–1 MISS23 AUG Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain BTTS -5% 2–2 HIT22 AUG Lens vs Auxerre Home -14% 5–2 HIT22 AUG Toulouse vs Lyon BTTS -12% 0–2 MISS22 AUG Nice vs Lorient BTTS -7% 0–0 MISS21 AUG Marseille vs Strasbourg Over 2.5 -2% 4–0 HITMay 2026 // 1 PICK · 1 HIT · 0 MISS
17 MAY Strasbourg vs Monaco BTTS -18% 5–4 HIT