Ligue 1
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 42 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
40.5%
1X2
17/42
61.9%
O/U 2.5
26/42
54.8%
BTTS
23/42
35.7%
Exact score
15/42
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
40
Settled
60.0%
Hit rate
24/40
1.56
Avg odds
-5.5%
ROI
-2.2u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=16 68.8% HIT · AVG 1.61 · +11.9% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=12 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.64 · +8.3% ROI
HOME WIN · N=11 36.4% HIT · AVG 1.42 · -48.5% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.24 · +24.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
1
Bets
100%
Hit
+65.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
10
Bets
60%
Hit
-2.9%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
5
Bets
80%
Hit
+32.4%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
24
Bets
54%
Hit
-17.5%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 15 PICKS · 8 HIT · 7 MISS
17 MAY Lille vs Auxerre Home -27% 0–2 MISS17 MAY Strasbourg vs Monaco BTTS -18% 5–4 HIT17 MAY Paris FC vs Paris SG Over 2.5 -16% 2–1 HIT17 MAY Nice vs Metz Over 2.5 -5% 0–0 MISS17 MAY Marseille vs Rennes Over 2.5 -1% 3–1 HIT17 MAY Lyon vs Lens BTTS -15% 0–4 MISS17 MAY Lorient vs Le Havre BTTS -14% 0–2 MISS13 MAY Lens vs Paris SG BTTS -19% 0–2 MISS10 MAY Rennes vs Paris FC Over 2.5 -11% 2–1 HIT10 MAY Toulouse vs Lyon BTTS -6% 2–1 HIT10 MAY Monaco vs Lille Over 2.5 -3% 0–1 MISS10 MAY Metz vs Lorient Over 2.5 +1% 0–4 HIT10 MAY Le Havre vs Marseille BTTS -15% 0–1 MISS10 MAY Auxerre vs Nice BTTS -13% 2–1 HIT10 MAY Angers vs Strasbourg BTTS -9% 1–1 HIT