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Paris FC vs Nice Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

Paris FC

PPG 1.48 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Nice

PPG 0.99 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.0%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.2%1-111.6%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.5%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.6%3-15.2%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 48.8% 2.05 -9.0%

Draw 31.9% 30.8% 3.25 +3.7%

Away win 23.7% 27.8% 3.60 -8.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 50.0% 2.00 +1.0%

Over 3.5 30.7% 28.6% 3.50 +7.4%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 48.9% 47.6% 2.10 +2.7%

Away O1.5 33.0% 29.4% 3.40 +12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 0–0 6.2%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paris FC1.6

Nice1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PARIS FC · PPG 1.48

NICE · PPG 0.99

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Paris FC (H) 44.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -9.0%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +3.7%

Nice (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paris FC face Nice in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paris FC a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Nice 24%, so Paris FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Paris FC and 1.1 for Nice (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paris FC are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 0.99 for Nice. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +20.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Paris FC vs Nice Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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