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Marseille vs Strasbourg Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 1 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:45

Marseille

PPG 1.94 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Strasbourg

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.6%0-22.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.6%1-19.5%1-25.9%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-19.7%2-26.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.3%3-16.6%3-24.1%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-15.4%4+-23.4%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 59.9% 1.67 -11.3%

Draw 22.5% 23.8% 4.20 -3.3%

Away win 24.4% 23.0% 4.35 +3.7%

Over 2.5 63.1% 64.5% 1.55 -2.2%

Over 3.5 39.4% 42.6% 2.35 -7.4%

BTTS 61.3% 64.5% 1.55 -5.0%

Home O1.5 58.6% 64.5% 1.55 -9.2%

Away O1.5 37.3% 36.4% 2.75 +2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.3%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 1–2 5.9%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marseille2.0

Strasbourg1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MARSEILLE · PPG 1.94

STRASBOURG · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Marseille (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -11.3%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.3%

Strasbourg (A) 24.4%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV +3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marseille face Strasbourg in France - Ligue 1 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marseille a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Strasbourg 24%, so Marseille are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Marseille and 1.2 for Strasbourg (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marseille are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.40 for Strasbourg. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 4-0.

Marseille vs Strasbourg Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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