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Toulouse vs Lille Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 3 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 18:45

Toulouse

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LD ···

UPCOMING

Lille

PPG 1.96 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-18.3%0-25.6%0-32.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.8%1-111.9%1-28.1%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-18.6%2-25.8%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.0%3-14.1%3-22.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 29.9% 3.35 +26.0%

Draw 25.4% 30.3% 3.30 -9.7%

Away win 37.0% 47.2% 2.12 -21.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 48.8% 2.05 +10.3%

Over 3.5 31.7% 27.4% 3.65 +15.7%

BTTS 55.0% 55.6% 1.80 -1.0%

Home O1.5 39.9% 33.3% 3.00 +19.7%

Away O1.5 42.2% 45.5% 2.20 -7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.0%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 0–1 8.3%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toulouse1.4

Lille1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TOULOUSE · PPG 1.20

LILLE · PPG 1.96

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Toulouse (H) 37.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +26.0%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -9.7%

Lille (A) 37.0%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Toulouse face Lille in France - Ligue 1 on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toulouse a 38% chance, the draw 25% and Lille 37%, so Toulouse are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Toulouse and 1.4 for Lille (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toulouse are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.96 for Lille. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +36.4%.

Toulouse vs Lille Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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