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Nice vs Lorient Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:45

Nice

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DL ···

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Lorient

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.4%0-24.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.3%1-111.6%1-27.3%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.2%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.9%3-14.9%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% 48.1% 2.08 -3.9%

Draw 24.5% 28.6% 3.50 -8.6%

Away win 29.2% 30.3% 3.30 -2.2%

Over 2.5 53.9% 55.6% 1.80 -3.0%

Over 3.5 33.3% 33.3% 3.00 -0.1%

BTTS 57.2% 61.7% 1.62 -7.3%

Home O1.5 47.3% 51.3% 1.95 -7.8%

Away O1.5 37.3% 37.7% 2.65 -1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob57.2%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 9.3%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 1–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nice1.6

Lorient1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NICE · PPG 1.36

LORIENT · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nice (H) 46.2%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -3.9%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.6%

Lorient (A) 29.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nice face Lorient in France - Ligue 1 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nice a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Lorient 29%, so Nice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Nice and 1.3 for Lorient (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nice are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.10 for Lorient. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Nice vs Lorient Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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