Today / France - Ligue 1 / Auxerre vs Angers

Auxerre vs Angers Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:45

Auxerre

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Angers

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.2%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.2%1-111.7%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.5%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.5%3-15.1%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.0%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 52.6% 1.90 -14.9%

Draw 26.4% 29.0% 3.45 -5.3%

Away win 28.9% 25.3% 3.95 +8.5%

Over 2.5 51.2% 50.0% 2.00 +2.4%

Over 3.5 31.3% 28.2% 3.55 +11.1%

BTTS 53.4% 55.6% 1.80 -3.9%

Home O1.5 48.9% 50.0% 2.00 -2.2%

Away O1.5 33.0% 30.3% 3.30 +8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.4%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 1–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Auxerre1.6

Angers1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 31.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AUXERRE · PPG 1.36

ANGERS · PPG 1.02

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Auxerre (H) 44.8%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -14.9%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -5.3%

Angers (A) 28.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Auxerre face Angers in France - Ligue 1 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Auxerre a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Angers 29%, so Auxerre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Auxerre and 1.1 for Angers (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Auxerre are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.02 for Angers. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +20.0%. This match finished 1-3.

Auxerre vs Angers Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - Ligue 1 Predictions