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Lille vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:45

Lille

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Paris Saint Germain

PPG 1.72 · AWAY

LAST 5

DD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.5%0-24.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.9%1-111.8%1-27.1%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.3%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.1%3-14.9%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 22.0% 4.55 +105.2%

Draw 27.0% 26.3% 3.80 +1.6%

Away win 27.9% 58.5% 1.71 -31.4%

Over 2.5 50.5% 57.8% 1.73 -12.6%

Over 3.5 30.8% 35.7% 2.80 -13.8%

BTTS 52.7% 59.9% 1.67 -12.0%

Home O1.5 46.8% 31.3% 3.20 +49.8%

Away O1.5 35.3% 58.8% 1.70 -40.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.9%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lille1.6

Paris Saint Germain1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LILLE · PPG 1.64

PARIS SAINT GERMAIN · PPG 1.72

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lille (H) 45.1%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +105.2%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +1.6%

Paris Saint Germain (A) 27.9%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -31.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lille face Paris Saint Germain in France - Ligue 1 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lille a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Paris Saint Germain 28%, so Lille are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Lille and 1.2 for Paris Saint Germain (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lille are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.72 for Paris Saint Germain. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +52.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Lille vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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