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Lyon vs Le Havre Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:45

Lyon

PPG 1.94 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Le Havre

PPG 0.99 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-16.7%0-23.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.1%1-111.4%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.7%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.3%3-15.5%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 69.4% 1.44 -27.6%

Draw 26.8% 23.8% 4.20 +7.5%

Away win 22.9% 13.5% 7.40 +41.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 57.8% 1.73 -12.6%

Over 3.5 29.8% 35.7% 2.80 -9.9%

BTTS 51.0% 54.1% 1.85 -5.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 65.4% 1.53 -25.2%

Away O1.5 32.6% 23.1% 4.33 +41.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.0%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lyon1.7

Le Havre1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LYON · PPG 1.94

LE HAVRE · PPG 0.99

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lyon (H) 50.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -27.6%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +7.5%

Le Havre (A) 22.9%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +41.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lyon face Le Havre in France - Ligue 1 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lyon a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Le Havre 23%, so Lyon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Lyon and 1.0 for Le Havre (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lyon are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 0.99 for Le Havre. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +41.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Lyon vs Le Havre Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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