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Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:45

Rennes

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Paris Saint Germain

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

DD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.2%0-25.4%0-32.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.5%1-111.1%1-28.3%1-34.1%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.5%2-26.4%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.9%3-14.4%3-23.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 20.0% 5.00 +101.0%

Draw 24.6% 23.1% 4.33 +3.9%

Away win 35.2% 65.4% 1.53 -46.1%

Over 2.5 59.7% 69.4% 1.44 -14.0%

Over 3.5 36.6% 47.6% 2.10 -23.1%

BTTS 61.3% 64.5% 1.55 -5.0%

Home O1.5 42.4% 33.3% 3.00 +27.2%

Away O1.5 41.2% 71.4% 1.40 -42.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.3%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 1–0 7.5%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rennes1.5

Paris Saint Germain1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RENNES · PPG 1.82

PARIS SAINT GERMAIN · PPG 1.86

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rennes (H) 40.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +101.0%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +3.9%

Paris Saint Germain (A) 35.2%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -46.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rennes face Paris Saint Germain in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rennes a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Paris Saint Germain 35%, so Rennes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Rennes and 1.5 for Paris Saint Germain (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rennes are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.86 for Paris Saint Germain. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +54.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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