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Lyon vs Auxerre Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 3 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:00

Lyon

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

UPCOMING

Auxerre

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-14.8%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.5%1-19.8%1-25.0%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-110.0%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.6%3-16.8%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-15.5%4+-22.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 66.2% 1.51 -13.5%

Draw 21.3% 23.8% 4.20 -6.3%

Away win 21.4% 16.9% 5.90 +15.8%

Over 2.5 59.6% 60.6% 1.65 -1.7%

Over 3.5 36.4% 37.7% 2.65 -3.5%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 57.6% 64.5% 1.55 -10.7%

Away O1.5 31.9% 27.8% 3.60 +14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 57% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 10.0%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lyon2.0

Auxerre1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LYON · PPG 1.79

AUXERRE · PPG 0.82

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lyon (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV -13.5%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.3%

Auxerre (A) 21.4%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV +15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lyon face Auxerre in France - Ligue 1 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lyon a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Auxerre 21%, so Lyon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Lyon and 1.0 for Auxerre (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lyon are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.82 for Auxerre. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +14.8%.

Lyon vs Auxerre Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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