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Strasbourg vs Monaco Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 19:00

Strasbourg

PPG 1.69 · HOME

5 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Monaco

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.2%0-24.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.2%1-110.8%1-27.1%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.2%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.1%3-15.4%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.5%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 34.7% 2.88 +40.3%

Draw 25.5% 25.6% 3.90 -0.3%

Away win 25.8% 46.5% 2.15 -26.7%

Over 2.5 59.1% 69.4% 1.44 -14.9%

Over 3.5 36.4% 47.6% 2.10 -23.6%

BTTS 59.7% 72.5% 1.38 -17.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.2%

#4 1–2 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Strasbourg1.7

Monaco1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

STRASBOURG · PPG 1.69

MONACO · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Strasbourg (H) 48.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +40.3%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -0.3%

Monaco (A) 25.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Strasbourg face Monaco in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Strasbourg a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Monaco 26%, so Strasbourg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Strasbourg and 1.3 for Monaco (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Strasbourg are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.38 for Monaco. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +40.3%. This match finished 5-4.

Strasbourg vs Monaco Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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