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Angers vs Lille Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 13:00

Angers

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Lille

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-110.9%0-26.6%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.7%1-113.0%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.4%2-17.8%2-24.7%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.5%3-13.1%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 21.1% 4.75 +72.9%

Draw 27.5% 27.8% 3.60 -0.6%

Away win 36.1% 58.8% 1.70 -38.6%

Over 2.5 50.2% 50.0% 2.00 +0.4%

Over 3.5 28.3% 28.6% 3.50 -0.6%

BTTS 53.0% 52.4% 1.91 +1.2%

Home O1.5 32.4% 25.0% 4.00 +29.6%

Away O1.5 37.3% 54.6% 1.83 -31.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.0%

H 36% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Angers1.2

Lille1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ANGERS · PPG 1.40

LILLE · PPG 1.75

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.02, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Angers (H) 36.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +72.9%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.6%

Lille (A) 36.1%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -38.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Angers face Lille in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Angers a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Lille 36%, so Angers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Angers and 1.2 for Lille (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Angers are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.75 for Lille. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +71.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Angers vs Lille Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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