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Lens vs Auxerre Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:15

Lens

PPG 2.13 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Auxerre

PPG 0.99 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-14.9%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.8%1-19.8%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.8%3-16.5%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-15.1%4+-22.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 64.9% 1.54 -13.9%

Draw 22.2% 23.8% 4.20 -4.1%

Away win 21.8% 17.9% 5.60 +13.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 61.7% 1.62 -12.7%

Over 3.5 33.1% 39.2% 2.55 -15.6%

BTTS 53.0% 59.9% 1.67 -11.5%

Home O1.5 55.3% 65.4% 1.53 -15.4%

Away O1.5 22.6% 29.4% 3.40 -13.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.0%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–0 11.8%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lens2.0

Auxerre0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LENS · PPG 2.13

AUXERRE · PPG 0.99

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.16 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lens (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.54 · IMPLIED 64.9% EV -13.9%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.1%

Auxerre (A) 21.8%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lens face Auxerre in France - Ligue 1 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lens a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Auxerre 22%, so Lens are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Lens and 0.8 for Auxerre (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lens are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 0.99 for Auxerre. This match finished 5-2.

Lens vs Auxerre Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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