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Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:45

Toulouse

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LD ···

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Lyon

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.6%0-24.7%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.6%1-111.8%1-27.3%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.2%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.9%3-14.7%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 35.2% 2.84 +30.4%

Draw 24.7% 28.2% 3.55 -7.4%

Away win 29.4% 43.5% 2.30 -19.4%

Over 2.5 53.9% 57.1% 1.75 -5.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 34.7% 2.88 -9.0%

BTTS 54.7% 62.5% 1.60 -12.5%

Home O1.5 44.7% 42.6% 2.35 +5.1%

Away O1.5 37.3% 48.8% 2.05 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 9.6%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 1–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toulouse1.6

Lyon1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TOULOUSE · PPG 1.44

LYON · PPG 1.40

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Toulouse (H) 45.9%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV +30.4%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.4%

Lyon (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Toulouse face Lyon in France - Ligue 1 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toulouse a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Lyon 29%, so Toulouse are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Toulouse and 1.2 for Lyon (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toulouse are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.40 for Lyon. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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