Today / France - Ligue 1 / Monaco vs Marseille

Monaco vs Marseille Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:45

Monaco

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Marseille

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.7%0-24.7%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.8%1-111.9%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.2%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.9%3-14.7%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.7% 41.7% 2.40 +0.1%

Draw 28.0% 28.6% 3.50 -1.2%

Away win 30.2% 38.2% 2.62 -20.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 63.7% 1.57 -20.7%

Over 3.5 30.4% 42.0% 2.38 -27.7%

BTTS 52.7% 66.7% 1.50 -20.9%

Home O1.5 43.5% 52.4% 1.91 -16.9%

Away O1.5 36.6% 50.0% 2.00 -26.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monaco1.5

Marseille1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MONACO · PPG 1.75

MARSEILLE · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Monaco (H) 41.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +0.1%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.2%

Marseille (A) 30.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -20.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monaco face Marseille in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monaco a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Marseille 30%, so Monaco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Monaco and 1.2 for Marseille (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monaco are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.36 for Marseille. This match finished 2-0.

Monaco vs Marseille Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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