Today / France - Ligue 1 / Le Havre vs Monaco

Le Havre vs Monaco Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 15:15

Le Havre

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LD ···

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Monaco

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-17.7%0-24.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.5%1-111.8%1-27.4%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-19.1%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.8%3-14.7%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 28.6% 3.50 +60.7%

Draw 24.7% 26.3% 3.80 -3.7%

Away win 29.4% 52.4% 1.91 -26.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 63.7% 1.57 -15.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 40.0% 2.50 -21.0%

BTTS 54.7% 64.5% 1.55 -15.2%

Home O1.5 43.1% 40.0% 2.50 +7.8%

Away O1.5 37.3% 57.8% 1.73 -35.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 9.5%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Le Havre1.5

Monaco1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LE HAVRE · PPG 1.40

MONACO · PPG 1.36

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Le Havre (H) 45.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +60.7%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.7%

Monaco (A) 29.4%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -26.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Le Havre face Monaco in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Le Havre a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Monaco 29%, so Le Havre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Le Havre and 1.2 for Monaco (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Le Havre are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.36 for Monaco. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +22.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Le Havre vs Monaco Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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