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Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 3 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 19:05

Paris Saint Germain

PPG 2.09 · HOME

LAST 5

DD ···

UPCOMING

Monaco

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.1%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.2%1-110.9%1-26.4%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.7%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.9%3-15.7%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.8%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 71.4% 1.40 -34.9%

Draw 24.2% 20.8% 4.80 +9.7%

Away win 29.3% 14.7% 6.80 +59.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 70.4% 1.42 -23.6%

Over 3.5 33.2% 48.8% 2.05 -31.9%

BTTS 55.3% 63.7% 1.57 -13.2%

Home O1.5 49.9% 74.1% 1.35 -32.6%

Away O1.5 33.2% 31.3% 3.20 +6.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.3%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–2 6.4%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paris Saint Germain1.8

Monaco1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PARIS SAINT GERMAIN · PPG 2.09

MONACO · PPG 1.64

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Paris Saint Germain (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -34.9%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +9.7%

Monaco (A) 29.3%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +59.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paris Saint Germain face Monaco in France - Ligue 1 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paris Saint Germain a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Monaco 29%, so Paris Saint Germain are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Paris Saint Germain and 1.2 for Monaco (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 1.64 for Monaco. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +46.1%.

Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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