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Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:45

Stade Brestois 29

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

DD ···

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Toulouse

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 50.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-16.9%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.7%1-111.5%1-26.8%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.5%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.4%3-15.2%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 38.5% 2.60 +20.6%

Draw 26.9% 30.3% 3.30 -6.7%

Away win 26.7% 38.5% 2.60 -18.4%

Over 2.5 50.6% 51.3% 1.95 -1.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 29.0% 3.45 +8.7%

BTTS 52.7% 57.8% 1.73 -8.8%

Home O1.5 48.9% 41.7% 2.40 +17.4%

Away O1.5 33.7% 41.7% 2.40 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stade Brestois 291.7

Toulouse1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

STADE BRESTOIS 29 · PPG 1.52

TOULOUSE · PPG 1.34

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Stade Brestois 29 (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +20.6%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.7%

Toulouse (A) 26.7%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stade Brestois 29 face Toulouse in France - Ligue 1 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Toulouse 27%, so Stade Brestois 29 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.2 for Toulouse (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.34 for Toulouse. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +29.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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