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HB Koge vs Kolding IF Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 11:00

HB Koge

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Kolding IF

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-112.3%0-28.1%0-33.6%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.8%1-113.0%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.2%2-16.8%2-24.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.8%3-12.4%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.0% 33.3% 3.00 -7.0%

Draw 26.6% 30.8% 3.25 -8.1%

Away win 42.4% 47.6% 2.10 -11.0%

Over 2.5 50.2% 57.1% 1.75 -12.2%

Over 3.5 28.3% 36.4% 2.75 -13.3%

BTTS 53.0% 63.7% 1.57 -16.8%

Home O1.5 30.6% 42.0% 2.38 -27.2%

Away O1.5 41.2% 50.0% 2.00 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 29.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.0%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–1 12.3%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 1–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HB Koge1.1

Kolding IF1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HB KOGE · PPG 1.07

KOLDING IF · PPG 1.04

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.26, combined xG 2.37 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

HB Koge (H) 31.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.0%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.1%

Kolding IF (A) 42.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

HB Koge face Kolding IF in Denmark - 1. Division on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HB Koge a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Kolding IF 42%, so Kolding IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for HB Koge and 1.3 for Kolding IF (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HB Koge are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.04 for Kolding IF. This match finished 2-2.

HB Koge vs Kolding IF Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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