Today / Denmark - 1. Division / Aarhus Fremad vs HB Koge

Aarhus Fremad vs HB Koge Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Aarhus Fremad

PPG 1.18 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

HB Koge

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.1%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.0%1-19.0%1-24.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.8%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.0%3-17.2%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-16.5%4+-22.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 59.5% 1.68 -5.1%

Draw 22.3% 26.7% 3.75 -9.8%

Away win 21.1% 23.0% 4.35 -4.9%

Over 2.5 53.5% 58.8% 1.70 -9.0%

Over 3.5 34.7% 36.4% 2.75 -4.6%

BTTS 53.1% 60.6% 1.65 -12.4%

Home O1.5 62.4% 58.8% 1.70 +6.1%

Away O1.5 23.9% 31.3% 3.20 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 29.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 56% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aarhus Fremad2.2

HB Koge0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AARHUS FREMAD · PPG 1.18

HB KOGE · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.30 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aarhus Fremad (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -5.1%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.8%

HB Koge (A) 21.1%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV -4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aarhus Fremad face HB Koge in Denmark - 1. Division on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aarhus Fremad a 56% chance, the draw 22% and HB Koge 21%, so Aarhus Fremad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Aarhus Fremad and 0.9 for HB Koge (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aarhus Fremad are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.88 for HB Koge. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Aarhus Fremad vs HB Koge Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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