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Esbjerg vs Hobro Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 12:00

Esbjerg

PPG 1.66 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hobro

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-19.0%0-25.5%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.1%1-112.4%1-27.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.0%2-18.6%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.2%3-14.0%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 51.3% 1.95 -21.2%

Draw 28.8% 28.2% 3.55 +1.3%

Away win 30.8% 29.4% 3.40 +4.7%

Over 2.5 49.9% 60.6% 1.65 -17.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 38.2% 2.62 -14.9%

BTTS 53.1% 65.4% 1.53 -18.8%

Home O1.5 40.8% 55.6% 1.80 -26.6%

Away O1.5 36.6% 39.2% 2.55 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 29.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.1%

D 29% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.2%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Esbjerg1.4

Hobro1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ESBJERG · PPG 1.66

HOBRO · PPG 1.82

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Esbjerg (H) 40.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -21.2%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +1.3%

Hobro (A) 30.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Esbjerg face Hobro in Denmark - 1. Division on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Esbjerg a 40% chance, the draw 29% and Hobro 31%, so Esbjerg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Esbjerg and 1.2 for Hobro (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Esbjerg are averaging 1.66 points per game versus 1.82 for Hobro. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.9%.

Esbjerg vs Hobro Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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