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Aalborg vs HB Koge Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:00

Aalborg

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

HB Koge

PPG 0.84 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-16.1%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.4%1-110.9%1-25.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.4%2-19.8%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.6%3-15.9%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.0%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 61.7% 1.62 -15.8%

Draw 23.7% 25.3% 3.95 -3.8%

Away win 24.3% 21.7% 4.60 +7.1%

Over 2.5 57.8% 63.7% 1.57 -9.3%

Over 3.5 35.8% 41.7% 2.40 -14.1%

BTTS 55.0% 63.7% 1.57 -13.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 63.7% 1.57 -23.2%

Away O1.5 32.6% 33.9% 2.95 -3.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 29.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.0%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aalborg1.8

HB Koge1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AALBORG · PPG 1.54

HB KOGE · PPG 0.84

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aalborg (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -15.8%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -3.8%

HB Koge (A) 24.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aalborg face HB Koge in Denmark - 1. Division on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aalborg a 52% chance, the draw 24% and HB Koge 24%, so Aalborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Aalborg and 1.0 for HB Koge (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aalborg are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 0.84 for HB Koge. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Aalborg vs HB Koge Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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