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Hobro vs Hvidovre Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:00

Hobro

PPG 1.48 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

UPCOMING

Hvidovre

PPG 1.84 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-111.1%0-27.0%0-33.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.2%1-112.9%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.0%2-17.6%2-24.8%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.3%3-13.0%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 36.5% 2.74 -2.2%

Draw 26.2% 29.9% 3.35 -7.3%

Away win 38.1% 42.7% 2.34 -10.8%

Over 2.5 50.6% 55.6% 1.80 -8.9%

Over 3.5 29.5% 33.9% 2.95 -7.8%

BTTS 53.7% 62.5% 1.60 -14.1%

Home O1.5 32.3% 41.7% 2.40 -22.5%

Away O1.5 37.3% 46.5% 2.15 -19.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 29.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.7%

A 38% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–1 11.1%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 1–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hobro1.2

Hvidovre1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HOBRO · PPG 1.48

HVIDOVRE · PPG 1.84

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.10, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hobro (H) 35.7%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -2.2%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -7.3%

Hvidovre (A) 38.1%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hobro face Hvidovre in Denmark - 1. Division on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hobro a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Hvidovre 38%, so Hvidovre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Hobro and 1.3 for Hvidovre (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hobro are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.84 for Hvidovre.

Hobro vs Hvidovre Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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