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HB Koge vs Hvidovre Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

HB Koge

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hvidovre

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-112.5%0-29.6%0-34.9%0-4+2.7%1 1-07.9%1-112.1%1-29.4%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-03.8%2-15.9%2-24.5%2-32.3%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.2%3-11.9%3-21.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% 34.5% 2.90 -12.5%

Draw 26.0% 28.6% 3.50 -5.4%

Away win 46.6% 45.9% 2.18 +1.6%

Over 2.5 49.9% 58.8% 1.70 -15.2%

Over 3.5 29.4% 37.0% 2.70 -12.4%

BTTS 53.1% 65.4% 1.53 -18.8%

Home O1.5 30.2% 42.6% 2.35 -29.0%

Away O1.5 47.3% 51.3% 1.95 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 29.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.1%

A 47% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 0–1 12.5%

#3 0–0 8.1%

#4 0–2 9.6%

#5 1–2 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HB Koge1.0

Hvidovre1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HB KOGE · PPG 1.25

HVIDOVRE · PPG 1.78

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.57 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

HB Koge (H) 27.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.5%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.4%

Hvidovre (A) 46.6%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV +1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

HB Koge face Hvidovre in Denmark - 1. Division on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HB Koge a 27% chance, the draw 26% and Hvidovre 47%, so Hvidovre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for HB Koge and 1.5 for Hvidovre (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HB Koge are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.78 for Hvidovre.

HB Koge vs Hvidovre Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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