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Hvidovre vs Esbjerg Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 11:00

Hvidovre

PPG 1.28 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Esbjerg

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.7%0-24.3%0-32.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.6%1-110.1%1-27.6%1-33.8%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.9%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.5%3-15.2%3-24.0%3-32.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.4%4+-22.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 42.7% 2.34 +4.1%

Draw 24.3% 29.9% 3.35 -11.2%

Away win 31.1% 36.5% 2.74 -14.8%

Over 2.5 60.4% 57.8% 1.73 +4.5%

Over 3.5 37.1% 36.4% 2.75 +2.0%

BTTS 61.2% 64.5% 1.55 -5.1%

Home O1.5 49.2% 47.6% 2.10 +3.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 43.5% 2.30 +10.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 29.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.2%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1✓ 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hvidovre1.8

Esbjerg1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HVIDOVRE · PPG 1.28

ESBJERG · PPG 1.78

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hvidovre (H) 44.5%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV +4.1%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.2%

Esbjerg (A) 31.1%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hvidovre face Esbjerg in Denmark - 1. Division on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hvidovre a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Esbjerg 31%, so Hvidovre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hvidovre and 1.5 for Esbjerg (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hvidovre are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.78 for Esbjerg. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Hvidovre vs Esbjerg Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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