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Aarhus Fremad vs Aalborg Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Regular Season - 2 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 16:00

Aarhus Fremad

PPG 1.58 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aalborg

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.9%0-23.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.2%1-111.5%1-26.5%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.6%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.7%3-15.3%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 42.4% 2.36 +17.3%

Draw 24.7% 28.6% 3.50 -8.1%

Away win 25.7% 38.2% 2.62 -19.6%

Over 2.5 53.4% 61.7% 1.62 -13.5%

Over 3.5 32.2% 39.2% 2.55 -17.9%

BTTS 55.4% 66.7% 1.50 -16.9%

Home O1.5 49.4% 50.0% 2.00 -1.2%

Away O1.5 36.5% 46.5% 2.15 -21.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 24.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aarhus Fremad1.7

Aalborg1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AARHUS FREMAD · PPG 1.58

AALBORG · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aarhus Fremad (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV +17.3%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.1%

Aalborg (A) 25.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aarhus Fremad face Aalborg in Denmark - 1. Division on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aarhus Fremad a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Aalborg 26%, so Aarhus Fremad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Aarhus Fremad and 1.1 for Aalborg (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aarhus Fremad are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.25 for Aalborg. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.1%.

Aarhus Fremad vs Aalborg Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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