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HB Koge vs Hillerød Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:00

HB Koge

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDD

UPCOMING

Hillerød

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-18.6%0-26.4%0-33.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.9%1-111.7%1-28.7%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.4%2-18.0%2-26.0%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.4%3-13.6%3-22.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 35.7% 2.80 -0.9%

Draw 23.9% 29.0% 3.45 -10.5%

Away win 40.8% 44.2% 2.26 -7.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 59.9% 1.67 -10.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 37.7% 2.65 -16.0%

BTTS 55.9% 65.4% 1.53 -14.5%

Home O1.5 39.5% 44.4% 2.25 -11.1%

Away O1.5 42.2% 50.0% 2.00 -15.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 29.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.9%

A 41% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–1 8.6%

#5 0–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HB Koge1.4

Hillerød1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HB KOGE · PPG 1.06

HILLERØD · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

HB Koge (H) 35.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -0.9%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.5%

Hillerød (A) 40.8%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

HB Koge face Hillerød in Denmark - 1. Division on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HB Koge a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Hillerød 41%, so Hillerød are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for HB Koge and 1.5 for Hillerød (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HB Koge are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.86 for Hillerød.

HB Koge vs Hillerød Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Denmark - 1. Division Predictions