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Hobro vs Aalborg Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 16:00

Hobro

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Aalborg

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-18.9%0-25.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.2%1-112.6%1-27.0%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.0%2-18.9%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.8%3-14.2%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 39.7% 2.52 +15.9%

Draw 25.7% 29.4% 3.40 -7.6%

Away win 28.3% 39.7% 2.52 -17.2%

Over 2.5 50.5% 57.8% 1.73 -12.6%

Over 3.5 30.4% 36.4% 2.75 -16.4%

BTTS 53.0% 64.5% 1.55 -17.8%

Home O1.5 40.0% 46.5% 2.15 -14.0%

Away O1.5 35.6% 46.5% 2.15 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 29.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 2–1✓ 8.9%

#4 2–0 8.0%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hobro1.4

Aalborg1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HOBRO · PPG 1.27

AALBORG · PPG 1.54

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hobro (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV +15.9%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.6%

Aalborg (A) 28.3%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hobro face Aalborg in Denmark - 1. Division on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hobro a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Aalborg 28%, so Hobro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hobro and 1.1 for Aalborg (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hobro are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.54 for Aalborg. This match finished 2-1.

Hobro vs Aalborg Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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