Today / Denmark - 1. Division / Hillerød vs Hobro

Hillerød vs Hobro Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 11:00

Hillerød

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hobro

PPG 1.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-18.9%0-26.7%0-33.3%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.9%1-111.8%1-28.8%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.2%2-17.8%2-25.8%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.3%3-13.4%3-22.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 40.8% 2.45 -14.5%

Draw 23.7% 31.3% 3.20 -14.5%

Away win 41.5% 40.0% 2.50 +3.8%

Over 2.5 58.0% 57.8% 1.73 +0.3%

Over 3.5 35.9% 38.2% 2.62 -5.9%

BTTS 59.9% 63.7% 1.57 -6.0%

Home O1.5 37.2% 45.5% 2.20 -18.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 45.5% 2.20 -7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 29.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.9%

A 42% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 0–1 8.9%

#5 0–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hillerød1.3

Hobro1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HILLERØD · PPG 1.36

HOBRO · PPG 1.98

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hillerød (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -14.5%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.5%

Hobro (A) 41.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hillerød face Hobro in Denmark - 1. Division on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hillerød a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Hobro 42%, so Hobro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Hillerød and 1.5 for Hobro (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hillerød are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.98 for Hobro. The best value bet our model finds is RES_A/O15, with an expected value of +2.1%. This match finished 3-1.

Hillerød vs Hobro Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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