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Hillerød vs Esbjerg Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Regular Season - 2 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 11:00

Hillerød

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Esbjerg

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.15, combined xG 2.38 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-110.3%0-25.8%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.7%1-113.1%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.4%2-18.2%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.1%3-13.5%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.1% — — —

Draw 27.5% — — —

Away win 29.4% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 35.2% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 24.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 43% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.3%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hillerød1.3

Esbjerg1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HILLERØD · PPG 1.70

ESBJERG · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.15, combined xG 2.38 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hillerød (H) 43.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Esbjerg (A) 29.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Hillerød face Esbjerg in Denmark - 1. Division on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hillerød a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Esbjerg 29%, so Hillerød are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Hillerød and 1.1 for Esbjerg (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hillerød are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.38 for Esbjerg.

Hillerød vs Esbjerg Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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