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Hillerød vs Aarhus Fremad Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 11:00

Hillerød

PPG 1.42 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aarhus Fremad

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.0%0-25.5%0-33.4%0-4+2.3%1 1-05.2%1-19.5%1-28.7%1-35.3%1-4+3.7%2 2-04.1%2-17.5%2-26.9%2-34.2%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.2%3-14.0%3-23.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.2%4+-22.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 42.0% 2.38 -16.9%

Draw 24.1% 29.9% 3.35 -11.6%

Away win 41.0% 37.0% 2.70 +10.7%

Over 2.5 59.5% 57.8% 1.73 +2.9%

Over 3.5 38.7% 36.4% 2.75 +6.4%

BTTS 61.6% 64.5% 1.55 -4.5%

Home O1.5 47.2% 47.6% 2.10 -0.9%

Away O1.5 52.1% 44.4% 2.25 +17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 29.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.6%

A 41% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hillerød1.6

Aarhus Fremad1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HILLERØD · PPG 1.42

AARHUS FREMAD · PPG 1.54

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hillerød (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -16.9%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.6%

Aarhus Fremad (A) 41.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hillerød face Aarhus Fremad in Denmark - 1. Division on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hillerød a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Aarhus Fremad 41%, so Aarhus Fremad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hillerød and 1.8 for Aarhus Fremad (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hillerød are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.54 for Aarhus Fremad. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.8%.

Hillerød vs Aarhus Fremad Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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