Today / Bulgaria - First League / Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia

Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 16:00

Spartak Varna

PPG 1.51 · HOME

UPCOMING

Septemvri Sofia

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a clear edge.

+22.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-13.8%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.4%1-18.6%1-23.6%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.7%2-19.7%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.7%3-17.2%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-16.8%4+-22.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.0% 52.4% 1.91 +22.2%

Draw 21.3% 30.8% 3.25 -18.5%

Away win 14.7% 27.4% 3.65 -27.8%

Over 2.5 57.6% 48.8% 2.05 +18.1%

Over 3.5 36.5% 27.0% 3.70 +35.0%

BTTS 53.1% 54.6% 1.83 -2.8%

Home O1.5 63.0% 47.6% 2.10 +32.3%

Away O1.5 21.1% 30.3% 3.30 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 64% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 1–1 8.6%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartak Varna2.2

Septemvri Sofia0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTAK VARNA · PPG 1.51

SEPTEMVRI SOFIA · PPG 0.77

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.41 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Spartak Varna (H) 64.0%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +22.2%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -18.5%

Septemvri Sofia (A) 14.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Varna face Septemvri Sofia in Bulgaria - First League on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Varna a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Septemvri Sofia 15%, so Spartak Varna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Spartak Varna and 0.8 for Septemvri Sofia (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Varna are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 0.77 for Septemvri Sofia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.0%.

Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bulgaria - First League Predictions