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Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 17:00

Slavia Sofia

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDD

UPCOMING

Levski Sofia

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+13.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-114.3%0-29.6%0-34.3%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.6%1-112.8%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.3%2-15.8%2-23.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.3%3-11.7%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.7% 10.8% 9.25 +77.1%

Draw 26.7% 21.7% 4.60 +13.7%

Away win 48.6% 76.9% 1.30 -36.8%

Over 2.5 50.4% 55.6% 1.80 -9.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 51.5% 45.5% 2.20 +13.3%

Home O1.5 30.8% 16.7% 6.00 +84.8%

Away O1.5 42.2% 69.0% 1.45 -38.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.5%

A 49% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.3%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 0–0 10.7%

#4 0–2 9.6%

#5 1–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slavia Sofia0.9

Levski Sofia1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SLAVIA SOFIA · PPG 1.32

LEVSKI SOFIA · PPG 2.13

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.44, combined xG 2.24 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Slavia Sofia (H) 24.7%

ODDS 9.25 · IMPLIED 10.8% EV +77.1%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +13.7%

Levski Sofia (A) 48.6%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -36.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slavia Sofia face Levski Sofia in Bulgaria - First League on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slavia Sofia a 25% chance, the draw 27% and Levski Sofia 49%, so Levski Sofia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Slavia Sofia and 1.3 for Levski Sofia (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slavia Sofia are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 2.13 for Levski Sofia. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +101.9%.

Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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