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Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 16:00

Septemvri Sofia

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

CSKA 1948

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-110.4%0-210.3%0-36.8%0-4+5.3%1 1-05.1%1-110.1%1-29.9%1-36.6%1-4+5.1%2 2-02.4%2-14.8%2-24.8%2-33.2%2-4+2.5%3 3-00.8%3-11.6%3-21.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.1% 16.7% 6.00 -2.0%

Draw 23.3% 26.7% 3.75 -7.6%

Away win 60.6% 69.4% 1.44 -12.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 52.6% 1.90 +13.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 30.8% 3.25 +18.9%

BTTS 54.7% 52.4% 1.91 +4.5%

Home O1.5 30.6% 22.2% 4.50 +37.7%

Away O1.5 55.2% 59.9% 1.67 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob54.7%

A 61% / xG 1.0-2.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 0–2 10.3%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 0–3 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Septemvri Sofia1.0

CSKA 19482.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SEPTEMVRI SOFIA · PPG 1.08

CSKA 1948 · PPG 1.80

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.02 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Septemvri Sofia (H) 16.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -2.0%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -7.6%

CSKA 1948 (A) 60.6%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Septemvri Sofia face CSKA 1948 in Bulgaria - First League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Septemvri Sofia a 16% chance, the draw 23% and CSKA 1948 61%, so CSKA 1948 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Septemvri Sofia and 2.0 for CSKA 1948 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Septemvri Sofia are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.80 for CSKA 1948. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +37.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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