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Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 7 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 18:15

Arda Kardzhali

PPG 1.98 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Botev Vratsa

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-15.8%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.0%1-110.2%1-23.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-19.0%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.3%3-15.3%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-13.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% 66.7% 1.50 -3.9%

Draw 20.9% 28.2% 3.55 -15.5%

Away win 15.0% 15.6% 6.40 -2.4%

Over 2.5 50.6% 46.5% 2.15 +8.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.3% 3.95 +8.0%

BTTS 48.0% 46.5% 2.15 +3.2%

Home O1.5 49.9% 55.6% 1.80 -10.2%

Away O1.5 16.8% 19.0% 5.25 -7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.0%

H 64% / xG 1.8-0.6 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 2–0✓ 14.1%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 0–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arda Kardzhali1.8

Botev Vratsa0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ARDA KARDZHALI · PPG 1.98

BOTEV VRATSA · PPG 0.82

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Arda Kardzhali (H) 64.1%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -3.9%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -15.5%

Botev Vratsa (A) 15.0%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arda Kardzhali face Botev Vratsa in Bulgaria - First League on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arda Kardzhali a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Botev Vratsa 15%, so Arda Kardzhali are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Arda Kardzhali and 0.6 for Botev Vratsa (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arda Kardzhali are averaging 1.98 points per game versus 0.82 for Botev Vratsa. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +19.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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