Today / Bulgaria - First League / Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv

Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 16:00

Botev Vratsa

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Botev Plovdiv

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-19.5%0-26.9%0-33.3%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.3%1-112.1%1-28.8%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.3%2-17.7%2-25.6%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.3%3-13.3%3-22.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 29.0% 3.45 +8.3%

Draw 24.3% 30.3% 3.30 -11.9%

Away win 44.4% 51.3% 1.95 -13.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 51.3% 1.95 +4.3%

Over 3.5 32.0% 29.0% 3.45 +10.4%

BTTS 55.0% 57.1% 1.75 -3.8%

Home O1.5 37.2% 33.3% 3.00 +11.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 48.8% 2.05 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.0%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 0–1 9.5%

#4 0–2 6.9%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botev Vratsa1.3

Botev Plovdiv1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTEV VRATSA · PPG 1.27

BOTEV PLOVDIV · PPG 0.95

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Botev Vratsa (H) 31.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +8.3%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.9%

Botev Plovdiv (A) 44.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botev Vratsa face Botev Plovdiv in Bulgaria - First League on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botev Vratsa a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Botev Plovdiv 44%, so Botev Plovdiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Botev Vratsa and 1.5 for Botev Plovdiv (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botev Vratsa are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.95 for Botev Plovdiv. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bulgaria - First League Predictions