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Ludogorets vs Slavia Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:00

Ludogorets

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Slavia Sofia

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-18.2%0-22.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.5%1-111.5%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.0%2-18.1%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.1%3-13.8%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-11.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 76.9% 1.30 -32.4%

Draw 26.3% 21.7% 4.60 +12.6%

Away win 21.7% 11.6% 8.60 +52.0%

Over 2.5 43.9% 60.6% 1.65 -27.6%

Over 3.5 24.3% 38.5% 2.60 -22.1%

BTTS 47.6% 51.8% 1.93 -8.1%

Home O1.5 39.9% 71.4% 1.40 -44.1%

Away O1.5 16.7% 21.1% 4.75 -12.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.6%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.5%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 2–0 13.0%

#4 1–1✓ 11.5%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ludogorets1.4

Slavia Sofia0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.9% · O3.5 PROB 24.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LUDOGORETS · PPG 2.25

SLAVIA SOFIA · PPG 1.24

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ludogorets (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -32.4%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +12.6%

Slavia Sofia (A) 21.7%

ODDS 8.60 · IMPLIED 11.6% EV +52.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ludogorets face Slavia Sofia in Bulgaria - First League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ludogorets a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Slavia Sofia 22%, so Ludogorets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ludogorets and 0.6 for Slavia Sofia (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ludogorets are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.24 for Slavia Sofia. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +17.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Ludogorets vs Slavia Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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