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CSKA 1948 vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 7 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:15

CSKA 1948

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-14.2%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.0%1-18.9%1-23.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.5%3-16.5%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-15.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.3% 66.7% 1.50 -3.5%

Draw 20.7% 26.7% 3.75 -13.4%

Away win 14.9% 16.1% 6.20 -4.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 51.3% 1.95 +4.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 29.0% 3.45 +9.0%

BTTS 49.2% 50.0% 2.00 -1.6%

Home O1.5 59.6% 59.9% 1.67 -0.5%

Away O1.5 18.2% 22.2% 4.50 -10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 64% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 13.6%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 1–1 8.9%

#4 3–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CSKA 19482.1

Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CSKA 1948 · PPG 2.22

LOKOMOTIV PLOVDIV · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.41 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CSKA 1948 (H) 64.3%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -3.5%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -13.4%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (A) 14.9%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

CSKA 1948 face Lokomotiv Plovdiv in Bulgaria - First League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CSKA 1948 a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Lokomotiv Plovdiv 15%, so CSKA 1948 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for CSKA 1948 and 0.7 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CSKA 1948 are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 0.80 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 2-0.

CSKA 1948 vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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