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Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:00

Botev Plovdiv

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Levski Sofia

PPG 1.99 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-111.5%0-29.3%0-35.0%0-4+3.0%1 1-07.2%1-111.8%1-29.6%1-35.2%1-4+3.0%2 2-03.7%2-16.0%2-24.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.3%3-12.1%3-21.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.3% 21.7% 4.60 +4.3%

Draw 22.6% 30.3% 3.30 -15.3%

Away win 54.1% 58.8% 1.70 -8.0%

Over 2.5 53.5% 51.3% 1.95 +4.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 29.4% 3.40 +7.1%

BTTS 52.7% 54.1% 1.85 -2.5%

Home O1.5 30.9% 26.7% 3.75 +15.9%

Away O1.5 47.9% 54.6% 1.83 -12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.7%

A 54% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 0–1 11.5%

#3 1–2 9.6%

#4 0–2 9.3%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botev Plovdiv1.0

Levski Sofia1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTEV PLOVDIV · PPG 1.70

LEVSKI SOFIA · PPG 1.99

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.60 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Botev Plovdiv (H) 23.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +4.3%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.3%

Levski Sofia (A) 54.1%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botev Plovdiv face Levski Sofia in Bulgaria - First League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botev Plovdiv a 23% chance, the draw 23% and Levski Sofia 54%, so Levski Sofia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Botev Plovdiv and 1.6 for Levski Sofia (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botev Plovdiv are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.99 for Levski Sofia. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +28.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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